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Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis — Super League 1 2018

Olympiakos Piraeus
Olympiakos Piraeus
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Aris Thessalonikis
Aris Thessalonikis
1/11/2025Super League 1Super League 1 · Round 18Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 137+ matches

Olympiakos Piraeus58%
×Draw24%
Aris Thessalonikis18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympiakos Piraeus
1.73
Aris Thessalonikis
0.84

Olympiakos Piraeus creates 106% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 137 away

creates per match

Olympiakos Piraeus
2.27
Aris Thessalonikis
1.09

allows per match

Olympiakos Piraeus
0.59
Aris Thessalonikis
1.18

finishing

Olympiakos Piraeus+0.00on par
Aris Thessalonikis+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympiakos Piraeus ↓

Aris Thessalonikis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Olympiakos Piraeus or draw
82%
Olympiakos Piraeus or Aris Thessalonikis
76%
Draw or Aris Thessalonikis
42%

Winning margin

Olympiakos Piraeus wins by 2+
33%
Aris Thessalonikis wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Olympiakos Piraeus 1+ goals
82%
Olympiakos Piraeus 2+ goals
52%
Olympiakos Piraeus 3+ goals
25%
Aris Thessalonikis 1+ goals
57%
Aris Thessalonikis 2+ goals
21%
Aris Thessalonikis 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Olympiakos Piraeus (draw refunded)
76%
Aris Thessalonikis (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympiakos Piraeus at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.59 · 137 matches

Aris Thessalonikis away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.18 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympiakos Piraeus attack 2.27 + Aris Thessalonikis defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.73

Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.09 + Olympiakos Piraeus defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Olympiakos Piraeus scores more
58%
level
24%
Aris Thessalonikis scores more
18%

Olympiakos Piraeus at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Olympiakos Piraeus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League 1: Olympiakos Piraeus 2–1 Aris Thessalonikis

Olympiakos Piraeus beat Aris Thessalonikis 2-1 in Super League 1 on January 11, 2025.

The match was played at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki in Piraeus.