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Olympiakos Piraeus U19 vs Lens U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Olympiakos Piraeus U19
Olympiakos Piraeus U19advanced
Pens
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Lens U19
Lens U19
2/28/2024UEFA Youth LeagueUEFA Youth League · Round of 16Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Olympiakos Piraeus U1940%
×Draw28%
Lens U1932%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympiakos Piraeus U19
1.28
Lens U19
1.11

Olympiakos Piraeus U19 creates 15% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 3 away

creates per match

Olympiakos Piraeus U19
1.89
Lens U19
1.00

allows per match

Olympiakos Piraeus U19
1.22
Lens U19
0.67

finishing

Olympiakos Piraeus U19+0.00on par
Lens U19+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympiakos Piraeus U19 ↓

Lens U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Olympiakos Piraeus U19 or draw
68%
Olympiakos Piraeus U19 or Lens U19
72%
Draw or Lens U19
60%

Winning margin

Olympiakos Piraeus U19 wins by 2+
18%
Lens U19 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Olympiakos Piraeus U19 1+ goals
72%
Olympiakos Piraeus U19 2+ goals
37%
Olympiakos Piraeus U19 3+ goals
14%
Lens U19 1+ goals
67%
Lens U19 2+ goals
30%
Lens U19 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Olympiakos Piraeus U19 (draw refunded)
56%
Lens U19 (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympiakos Piraeus U19 at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Lens U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympiakos Piraeus U19 attack 1.89 + Lens U19 defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.28

Lens U19 attack 1.00 + Olympiakos Piraeus U19 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Olympiakos Piraeus U19 scores more
40%
level
28%
Lens U19 scores more
32%

Olympiakos Piraeus U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Olympiakos Piraeus U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Youth League: Olympiakos Piraeus U19 2–2 Lens U19

Olympiakos Piraeus U19 and Lens U19 drew 2-2 in UEFA Youth League on February 28, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki in Piraeus.