Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Olympiakos Piraeus U19 vs Bayern München U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Olympiakos Piraeus U19
Olympiakos Piraeus U19
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Bayern München U19
Bayern München U19
10/22/2019UEFA Youth LeagueUEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 3Proponitiko Kentro Reti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Olympiakos Piraeus U1945%
×Draw23%
Bayern München U1932%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympiakos Piraeus U19
1.84
Bayern München U19
1.53

Olympiakos Piraeus U19 creates 20% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 19 away

creates per match

Olympiakos Piraeus U19
1.89
Bayern München U19
1.84

allows per match

Olympiakos Piraeus U19
1.22
Bayern München U19
1.79

finishing

Olympiakos Piraeus U19+0.00on par
Bayern München U19+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympiakos Piraeus U19 ↓

Bayern München U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Olympiakos Piraeus U19 or draw
68%
Olympiakos Piraeus U19 or Bayern München U19
77%
Draw or Bayern München U19
55%

Winning margin

Olympiakos Piraeus U19 wins by 2+
24%
Bayern München U19 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Olympiakos Piraeus U19 1+ goals
84%
Olympiakos Piraeus U19 2+ goals
55%
Olympiakos Piraeus U19 3+ goals
28%
Bayern München U19 1+ goals
78%
Bayern München U19 2+ goals
45%
Bayern München U19 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Olympiakos Piraeus U19 (draw refunded)
58%
Bayern München U19 (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympiakos Piraeus U19 at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Bayern München U19 away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympiakos Piraeus U19 attack 1.89 + Bayern München U19 defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.84

Bayern München U19 attack 1.84 + Olympiakos Piraeus U19 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Olympiakos Piraeus U19 scores more
45%
level
23%
Bayern München U19 scores more
32%

Olympiakos Piraeus U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Olympiakos Piraeus U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olympiakos Piraeus U19 vs Bayern München U19

Bayern München U19 beat Olympiakos Piraeus U19 4-0 in UEFA Youth League on October 22, 2019.

The match was played at Proponitiko Kentro Reti in Athens.