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Olympia Christnach vs Wiltz — Cup 2020

Olympia Christnach
Olympia Christnach
FT
2 – 6
HT: 1 – 4
Wiltz
Wiltzadvanced
9/21/2025CupCup · Round of 64

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Olympia Christnach6%
×Draw9%
Wiltz85%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympia Christnach
1.09
Wiltz
4.07

Wiltz creates 273% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 11 away

creates per match

Olympia Christnach
1.00
Wiltz
3.73

allows per match

Olympia Christnach
4.40
Wiltz
1.18

finishing

Olympia Christnach+0.00on par
Wiltz+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympia Christnach ↓

Wiltz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–25%
0–37%
0–47%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–26%
1–38%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–12%
2–23%
2–34%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 69% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
72%28%4.5
53%47%

Double chance

Olympia Christnach or draw
15%
Olympia Christnach or Wiltz
91%
Draw or Wiltz
94%

Winning margin

Olympia Christnach wins by 2+
2%
Wiltz wins by 2+
70%

Team goals

Olympia Christnach 1+ goals
66%
Olympia Christnach 2+ goals
30%
Olympia Christnach 3+ goals
10%
Wiltz 1+ goals
98%
Wiltz 2+ goals
90%
Wiltz 3+ goals
74%

Draw no bet

Olympia Christnach (draw refunded)
6%
Wiltz (draw refunded)
94%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympia Christnach at home — creates 1.00, concedes 4.40 · 5 matches

Wiltz away — creates 3.73, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympia Christnach attack 1.00 + Wiltz defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.09

Wiltz attack 3.73 + Olympia Christnach defence 4.40 → ÷2 → 4.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Olympia Christnach scores more
6%
level
9%
Wiltz scores more
85%

Wiltz at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Wiltz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Olympia Christnach 2–6 Wiltz

Wiltz beat Olympia Christnach 6-2 in Cup on September 21, 2025.