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Olympia Christnach vs UNA Strassen — Cup 2020

Olympia Christnach
Olympia Christnach
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
UNA Strassen
UNA Strassen
10/1/2023CupCup · 2nd RoundTerrain Am Lahr

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Olympia Christnach5%
×Draw8%
UNA Strassen87%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympia Christnach
1.07
UNA Strassen
4.24

UNA Strassen creates 296% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 13 away

creates per match

Olympia Christnach
1.00
UNA Strassen
4.08

allows per match

Olympia Christnach
4.40
UNA Strassen
1.15

finishing

Olympia Christnach+0.00on par
UNA Strassen+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympia Christnach ↓

UNA Strassen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–25%
0–37%
0–48%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–26%
1–38%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–23%
2–34%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–31%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (8%) · grid covers 67% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
74%26%4.5
55%45%

Double chance

Olympia Christnach or draw
13%
Olympia Christnach or UNA Strassen
92%
Draw or UNA Strassen
95%

Winning margin

Olympia Christnach wins by 2+
2%
UNA Strassen wins by 2+
73%

Team goals

Olympia Christnach 1+ goals
66%
Olympia Christnach 2+ goals
29%
Olympia Christnach 3+ goals
9%
UNA Strassen 1+ goals
98%
UNA Strassen 2+ goals
91%
UNA Strassen 3+ goals
76%

Draw no bet

Olympia Christnach (draw refunded)
6%
UNA Strassen (draw refunded)
94%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympia Christnach at home — creates 1.00, concedes 4.40 · 5 matches

UNA Strassen away — creates 4.08, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympia Christnach attack 1.00 + UNA Strassen defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.07

UNA Strassen attack 4.08 + Olympia Christnach defence 4.40 → ÷2 → 4.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 87%?"

Olympia Christnach scores more
5%
level
8%
UNA Strassen scores more
87%

UNA Strassen at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 87% does not mean "UNA Strassen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Olympia Christnach 0 – 5 UNA Strassen

UNA Strassen beat Olympia Christnach 5-0 in Cup on October 1, 2023.

The match was played at Terrain Am Lahr in Christnach.