Oly Town 1–2 United PDX: Result & Stats

Oly Town

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

United PDX

7/15/2023

USL League Two · Western Conference - 14South Sound Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Oly Town35%

×Draw23%

United PDX42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oly TownExpected goals in this matchUnited PDX

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.75

Oly Town

1.60

United PDX

1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 14 away

1.70

creates per match

1.64

1.85

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Oly Town

1.70

United PDX

1.64

allows per match

Oly Town

1.85

United PDX

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oly Town+0.00on par

United PDX+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oly Town ↓

United PDX →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Oly Town or draw

58%

Oly Town or United PDX

77%

Draw or United PDX

65%

Winning margin

Oly Town wins by 2+

17%

United PDX wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Oly Town 1+ goals

80%

Oly Town 2+ goals

47%

Oly Town 3+ goals

22%

United PDX 1+ goals

83%

United PDX 2+ goals

52%

United PDX 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Oly Town (draw refunded)

46%

United PDX (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oly Town at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.85 · 33 matches

United PDX away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oly Town attack 1.70 + United PDX defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.60

United PDX attack 1.64 + Oly Town defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Oly Town scores more

35%

level

23%

United PDX scores more

42%

United PDX at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "United PDX will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Oly Town 1–2 United PDX

United PDX beat Oly Town 2-1 in USL League Two on July 15, 2023.

The match was played at South Sound Stadium in Lacey, Washington.

Oly Town vs United PDX — USL League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

USL League Two: Oly Town 1–2 United PDX