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Oly Town vs Portland Timbers III — USL League Two 2018

Oly Town
Oly Town
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Portland Timbers III
Portland Timbers III
5/22/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 10Black Hills High School

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Oly Town30%
×Draw22%
Portland Timbers III48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oly Town
1.58
Portland Timbers III
2.03

Portland Timbers III creates 28% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 15 away

creates per match

Oly Town
1.70
Portland Timbers III
2.20

allows per match

Oly Town
1.85
Portland Timbers III
1.47

finishing

Oly Town+0.00on par
Portland Timbers III+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oly Town ↓

Portland Timbers III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Oly Town or draw
52%
Oly Town or Portland Timbers III
78%
Draw or Portland Timbers III
70%

Winning margin

Oly Town wins by 2+
14%
Portland Timbers III wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Oly Town 1+ goals
79%
Oly Town 2+ goals
47%
Oly Town 3+ goals
21%
Portland Timbers III 1+ goals
87%
Portland Timbers III 2+ goals
60%
Portland Timbers III 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Oly Town (draw refunded)
39%
Portland Timbers III (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oly Town at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.85 · 33 matches

Portland Timbers III away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oly Town attack 1.70 + Portland Timbers III defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.58

Portland Timbers III attack 2.20 + Oly Town defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Oly Town scores more
30%
level
22%
Portland Timbers III scores more
48%

Portland Timbers III at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Portland Timbers III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oly Town vs Portland Timbers III

Portland Timbers III beat Oly Town 3-2 in USL League Two on May 22, 2022.

The match was played at Black Hills High School in Olympia, Washington.