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OLS vs RoPS II — Kakkonen - Lohko C 2018

OLS
OLS
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
RoPS II
RoPS II
5/15/2021Kakkonen - Lohko CKakkonen - Lohko C · Group C - 2Oulu-lehti Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

OLS42%
×Draw23%
RoPS II35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OLS
1.69
RoPS II
1.54

OLS creates 10% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 30 away

creates per match

OLS
1.71
RoPS II
1.73

allows per match

OLS
1.35
RoPS II
1.67

finishing

OLS+0.00on par
RoPS II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OLS ↓

RoPS II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

OLS or draw
65%
OLS or RoPS II
77%
Draw or RoPS II
58%

Winning margin

OLS wins by 2+
21%
RoPS II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

OLS 1+ goals
82%
OLS 2+ goals
50%
OLS 3+ goals
24%
RoPS II 1+ goals
79%
RoPS II 2+ goals
45%
RoPS II 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

OLS (draw refunded)
54%
RoPS II (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OLS at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.35 · 63 matches

RoPS II away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.67 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OLS attack 1.71 + RoPS II defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.69

RoPS II attack 1.73 + OLS defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

OLS scores more
42%
level
23%
RoPS II scores more
35%

OLS at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "OLS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

OLS 0 – 2 RoPS II

RoPS II beat OLS 2-0 in Kakkonen - Lohko C on May 15, 2021.

The match was played at Oulu-lehti Areena in Oulu.