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OLS vs Kuopion Elo — Kakkonen - Lohko C 2018

OLS
OLS
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Kuopion Elo
Kuopion Elo
7/23/2023Kakkonen - Lohko CKakkonen - Lohko C · Group C - 11Oulu-lehti Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

OLS58%
×Draw20%
Kuopion Elo22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OLS
2.24
Kuopion Elo
1.31

OLS creates 71% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 22 away

creates per match

OLS
1.71
Kuopion Elo
1.27

allows per match

OLS
1.35
Kuopion Elo
2.77

finishing

OLS+0.00on par
Kuopion Elo+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OLS ↓

Kuopion Elo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

OLS or draw
78%
OLS or Kuopion Elo
80%
Draw or Kuopion Elo
42%

Winning margin

OLS wins by 2+
36%
Kuopion Elo wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

OLS 1+ goals
89%
OLS 2+ goals
65%
OLS 3+ goals
38%
Kuopion Elo 1+ goals
73%
Kuopion Elo 2+ goals
38%
Kuopion Elo 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

OLS (draw refunded)
73%
Kuopion Elo (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OLS at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.35 · 63 matches

Kuopion Elo away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.77 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OLS attack 1.71 + Kuopion Elo defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 2.24

Kuopion Elo attack 1.27 + OLS defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

OLS scores more
58%
level
20%
Kuopion Elo scores more
22%

OLS at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "OLS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: OLS vs Kuopion Elo

OLS beat Kuopion Elo 4-0 in Kakkonen - Lohko C on July 23, 2023.

The match was played at Oulu-lehti Areena in Oulu.