OLS 4–3 FC jazz: Result & Stats | Ykkönen

OLS

FT

4 – 3

HT: 3 – 1

FC jazz

E. Raittinen 69'

O. Suutari 67', 20'

D. Heikkinen 19'

Lyon Firmino 53'

T. Sasaki 47'

E. Uusitalo 15'

9/13/2024

Ykkönen · Promotion Group - 1Oulu-lehti Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

OLS54%

×Draw21%

FC jazz26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OLSExpected goals in this matchFC jazz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.20

1.48

OLS

2.20

FC jazz

1.48

OLS creates 49% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 35 away

2.51

creates per match

1.66

1.31

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

OLS

2.51

FC jazz

1.66

allows per match

OLS

1.31

FC jazz

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

OLS+0.00on par

FC jazz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OLS ↓

FC jazz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

OLS or draw

74%

OLS or FC jazz

79%

Draw or FC jazz

46%

Winning margin

OLS wins by 2+

32%

FC jazz wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

OLS 1+ goals

89%

OLS 2+ goals

64%

OLS 3+ goals

37%

FC jazz 1+ goals

77%

FC jazz 2+ goals

43%

FC jazz 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

OLS (draw refunded)

68%

FC jazz (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OLS at home — creates 2.51, concedes 1.31 · 35 matches

FC jazz away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.89 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OLS attack 2.51 + FC jazz defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.20

FC jazz attack 1.66 + OLS defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

OLS scores more

54%

level

21%

FC jazz scores more

26%

OLS at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "OLS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

15'

19'

20'

45+2'

46'

47'

53'

65'

A. Räisänen← R. Kähkönen

67'

O. Suutari

69'

E. Raittinen

70'

N. Puustinen← O. Chinonso

75'

L. Firmino

75'

F. Lamminen← O. Helen

75'

N. Aydin← E. Uusitalo

81'

E. Saarela

86'

D. Säily← O. Suutari

86'

E. Nieminen← A. Luhtanen

89'

H. Karlsson← V. Saarikoski

90+1'

A. Nurmela

OLS

FC

1

▼

Simula

2

Lemiö

11

Rantanen

8

⚽

▼

Uusitalo

4

▼

Luhtanen

17

Etok

99

⚽

Sasaki

10

Lehto

9

⚽

Firmino

20

▼

Helen

77

▼

23

48

44

32

45

▼

Saarikosk

17

⚽

Heikkinen

6

Peltola

51

Paananen

47

⚽

Raittinen

7

⚽2

▼

Suutari

36

▼

Kähkönen

Manager: M. Mannila

65'▲A. Räisänen←▼R. Kähkönen

86'▲D. Säily←▼O. Suutari

89'▲H. Karlsson←▼V. Saarikoski

OLS substitutes

53Räisänen60Säily43Karlsson37Piirto39Flygare49Ridanpää59Sillanpää

Manager: V. Ulanen

46'▲A. Takala←▼R. Simula

70'▲N. Puustinen←▼O. Chinonso

75'▲F. Lamminen←▼O. Helen

75'▲N. Aydin←▼E. Uusitalo

86'▲E. Nieminen←▼A. Luhtanen

FC jazz substitutes

12Takala21Puustinen14Lamminen67Aydin33Nieminen22Lehto

OLS 4 – 3 FC jazz

OLS beat FC jazz 4-3 in Ykkönen on September 13, 2024.

Goals: E. Uusitalo (15'), D. Heikkinen (19'), O. Suutari (20', 67'), T. Sasaki (47'), Lyon Firmino (53'), E. Raittinen (69').

The match was played at Oulu-lehti Areena in Oulu.

OLS vs FC jazz — Ykkönen 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

OLS 4 – 3 FC jazz