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Olot vs Sants — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Olot
Olot
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Sants
Sants
12/12/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 15Camp de Futbol Municipal Pla de Baix

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Olot59%
×Draw23%
Sants18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olot
1.75
Sants
0.83

Olot creates 111% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 45 away

creates per match

Olot
1.76
Sants
0.82

allows per match

Olot
0.85
Sants
1.73

finishing

Olot+0.00on par
Sants+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olot ↓

Sants →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Olot or draw
82%
Olot or Sants
77%
Draw or Sants
41%

Winning margin

Olot wins by 2+
34%
Sants wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Olot 1+ goals
83%
Olot 2+ goals
52%
Olot 3+ goals
25%
Sants 1+ goals
56%
Sants 2+ goals
20%
Sants 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Olot (draw refunded)
77%
Sants (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olot at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.85 · 33 matches

Sants away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.73 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olot attack 1.76 + Sants defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.75

Sants attack 0.82 + Olot defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Olot scores more
59%
level
23%
Sants scores more
18%

Olot at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Olot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olot vs Sants

Olot beat Sants 4-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on December 12, 2021.

The match was played at Camp de Futbol Municipal Pla de Baix in Olot.