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Olot vs Sant Andreu — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Olot
Olot
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sant Andreu
Sant Andreu
4/10/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 31Camp Municipal d'Olot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Olot44%
×Draw26%
Sant Andreu30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olot
1.46
Sant Andreu
1.16

Olot creates 26% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 57 away

creates per match

Olot
1.76
Sant Andreu
1.47

allows per match

Olot
0.85
Sant Andreu
1.16

finishing

Olot+0.00on par
Sant Andreu+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olot ↓

Sant Andreu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Olot or draw
70%
Olot or Sant Andreu
74%
Draw or Sant Andreu
56%

Winning margin

Olot wins by 2+
21%
Sant Andreu wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Olot 1+ goals
77%
Olot 2+ goals
43%
Olot 3+ goals
18%
Sant Andreu 1+ goals
69%
Sant Andreu 2+ goals
32%
Sant Andreu 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Olot (draw refunded)
59%
Sant Andreu (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olot at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.85 · 33 matches

Sant Andreu away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.16 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olot attack 1.76 + Sant Andreu defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.46

Sant Andreu attack 1.47 + Olot defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Olot scores more
44%
level
26%
Sant Andreu scores more
30%

Olot at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Olot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Olot 1–0 Sant Andreu

Olot beat Sant Andreu 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on April 10, 2022.

The match was played at Camp Municipal d'Olot in Olot.