Olot 3–1 San Cristóbal: Result & Stats

Olot

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

San Cristóbal

10/17/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 7Camp de Futbol Municipal Pla de Baix

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Olot52%

×Draw27%

San Cristóbal21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OlotExpected goals in this matchSan Cristóbal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.81

Olot

1.46

San Cristóbal

0.81

Olot creates 80% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 108 away

1.76

creates per match

0.78

0.85

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Olot

1.76

San Cristóbal

0.78

allows per match

Olot

0.85

San Cristóbal

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olot+0.00on par

San Cristóbal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olot ↓

San Cristóbal →

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Olot or draw

79%

Olot or San Cristóbal

73%

Draw or San Cristóbal

48%

Winning margin

Olot wins by 2+

26%

San Cristóbal wins by 2+

Team goals

Olot 1+ goals

77%

Olot 2+ goals

43%

Olot 3+ goals

18%

San Cristóbal 1+ goals

56%

San Cristóbal 2+ goals

19%

San Cristóbal 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Olot (draw refunded)

72%

San Cristóbal (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Olot at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.85 · 33 matches

San Cristóbal away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.15 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Olot attack 1.76 + San Cristóbal defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.46

San Cristóbal attack 0.78 + Olot defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Olot scores more

52%

level

27%

San Cristóbal scores more

21%

Olot at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Olot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff