Olot 4–0 Rapitenca: Result & Stats

Olot

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Rapitenca

Pablo Ufano 83'

Marc Mas 27'

Bruno Perone 3'

Pau Juvanteny 1'

4/7/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 28Camp Municipal d'Olot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Olot58%

×Draw23%

Rapitenca19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OlotExpected goals in this matchRapitenca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.90

Olot

1.77

Rapitenca

0.90

Olot creates 97% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 32 away

1.76

creates per match

0.94

0.85

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Olot

1.76

Rapitenca

0.94

allows per match

Olot

0.85

Rapitenca

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olot+0.00on par

Rapitenca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olot ↓

Rapitenca →

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Olot or draw

81%

Olot or Rapitenca

77%

Draw or Rapitenca

42%

Winning margin

Olot wins by 2+

33%

Rapitenca wins by 2+

Team goals

Olot 1+ goals

83%

Olot 2+ goals

53%

Olot 3+ goals

26%

Rapitenca 1+ goals

59%

Rapitenca 2+ goals

23%

Rapitenca 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Olot (draw refunded)

75%

Rapitenca (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Olot at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.85 · 33 matches

Rapitenca away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.78 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Olot attack 1.76 + Rapitenca defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.77

Rapitenca attack 0.94 + Olot defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 58%?"

Olot scores more

58%

level

23%

Rapitenca scores more

19%

Olot at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Olot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

Pau Juvanteny

Bruno Perone

27'

Marc Mas

56'

Jordi Manzano← Bruno Perone

56'

Joan Maynau← Guillem Terma

56'

B. Hurtado← Adam Hafidh

56'

Ian Arqués← Airam Benito

71'

Marc Roquet← Pedro del Campo

71'

Albert Saragossa← Titi

79'

Pablo Ufano← Marc Mas

79'

Moha Chabboura← Arnau Forés

79'

David Escudero← Gerard Vergé

83'

Pablo Ufano

Olot

Rapitenca

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Mas

▼

Forés

Manager: Pedro Dólera

56'▲Jordi Manzano←▼Bruno Perone

56'▲Joan Maynau←▼Guillem Terma

71'▲Marc Roquet←▼Pedro del Campo

79'▲Pablo Ufano←▼Marc Mas

79'▲Moha Chabboura←▼Arnau Forés

Olot substitutes

ManzanoMaynauRoquetUfanoChabboura

56'▲B. Hurtado←▼Adam Hafidh

56'▲Ian Arqués←▼Airam Benito

71'▲Albert Saragossa←▼Titi

79'▲David Escudero←▼Gerard Vergé

Rapitenca substitutes

HurtadoArquésSaragossaEscudero