Olot 3–0 Montañesa: Result & Stats

Olot

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Montañesa

Arnau Forés 61'

Marc Roquet 53'

Marc Mas 20'

5/11/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 34Camp Municipal d'Olot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Olot57%

×Draw25%

Montañesa18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OlotExpected goals in this matchMontañesa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.77

Olot

1.61

Montañesa

0.77

Olot creates 109% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 81 away

1.76

creates per match

0.68

0.85

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Olot

1.76

Montañesa

0.68

allows per match

Olot

0.85

Montañesa

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olot+0.00on par

Montañesa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olot ↓

Montañesa →

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Olot or draw

82%

Olot or Montañesa

75%

Draw or Montañesa

43%

Winning margin

Olot wins by 2+

31%

Montañesa wins by 2+

Team goals

Olot 1+ goals

80%

Olot 2+ goals

48%

Olot 3+ goals

22%

Montañesa 1+ goals

54%

Montañesa 2+ goals

18%

Montañesa 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Olot (draw refunded)

76%

Montañesa (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Olot at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.85 · 33 matches

Montañesa away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.47 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Olot attack 1.76 + Montañesa defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.61

Montañesa attack 0.68 + Olot defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 57%?"

Olot scores more

57%

level

25%

Montañesa scores more

18%

Olot at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Olot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

Marc Mas

53'

Marc Roquet

58'

Arnau Forés← Guillem Terma

58'

Marti Puigbert← Marc Mas

59'

Alhaji Sanneh← Kevin Alarcón

59'

Wilber Hurtado← Jonathan Linares

61'

Arnau Forés

62'

Marco Gil← Albert Blázquez

69'

Moha Chabboura← David Bigas

69'

Joan Maynau← Uri González

69'

Marc Gabaldon← Eric Ruiz

69'

M. Howard← Joaquin Peñalver

73'

Sergi Barjuan← Marc Muñoz

Olot

Montañesa

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Mas

⚽

Roquet

Urri

Manager: Pedro Dólera

58'▲Arnau Forés←▼Guillem Terma

58'▲Marti Puigbert←▼Marc Mas

62'▲Marco Gil←▼Albert Blázquez

69'▲Moha Chabboura←▼David Bigas

69'▲Joan Maynau←▼Uri González

Olot substitutes

ForésPuigbertGilChabbouraMaynau

Manager: Raul Paje

59'▲Alhaji Sanneh←▼Kevin Alarcón

59'▲Wilber Hurtado←▼Jonathan Linares

69'▲Marc Gabaldon←▼Eric Ruiz

69'▲M. Howard←▼Joaquin Peñalver

73'▲Sergi Barjuan←▼Marc Muñoz

Montañesa substitutes

SannehHurtadoGabaldonHowardBarjuan

Match Recap: Olot vs Montañesa

Olot beat Montañesa 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on May 11, 2024.

Goals: Marc Mas (20'), Marc Roquet (53'), Arnau Forés (61').

The match was played at Camp Municipal d'Olot in Olot.

Olot vs Montañesa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Olot vs Montañesa