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Olot vs Manresa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Olot
Olot
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Manresa
Manresa
1/30/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 21Camp de Futbol Municipal Pla de Baix

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Olot45%
×Draw27%
Manresa28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olot
1.41
Manresa
1.05

Olot creates 34% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 76 away

creates per match

Olot
1.76
Manresa
1.26

allows per match

Olot
0.85
Manresa
1.05

finishing

Olot+0.00on par
Manresa+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olot ↓

Manresa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Olot or draw
72%
Olot or Manresa
73%
Draw or Manresa
55%

Winning margin

Olot wins by 2+
22%
Manresa wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Olot 1+ goals
76%
Olot 2+ goals
41%
Olot 3+ goals
17%
Manresa 1+ goals
65%
Manresa 2+ goals
28%
Manresa 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Olot (draw refunded)
62%
Manresa (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olot at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.85 · 33 matches

Manresa away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.05 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olot attack 1.76 + Manresa defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.41

Manresa attack 1.26 + Olot defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Olot scores more
45%
level
27%
Manresa scores more
28%

Olot at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Olot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Olot 1 – 1 Manresa

Olot and Manresa drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on January 30, 2022.

The match was played at Camp de Futbol Municipal Pla de Baix in Olot.