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Olot vs L'Escala — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Olot
Olot
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
L'Escala
L'Escala
Marc Roquet 89'
Marti Puigbert 85'
Marc Mas 21'
Maha 68'
5/1/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 32Camp Municipal d'Olot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Olot57%
×Draw24%
L'Escala20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olot
1.73
L'Escala
0.91

Olot creates 90% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 51 away

creates per match

Olot
1.76
L'Escala
0.96

allows per match

Olot
0.85
L'Escala
1.69

finishing

Olot+0.00on par
L'Escala+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olot ↓

L'Escala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Olot or draw
80%
Olot or L'Escala
76%
Draw or L'Escala
43%

Winning margin

Olot wins by 2+
32%
L'Escala wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Olot 1+ goals
82%
Olot 2+ goals
52%
Olot 3+ goals
25%
L'Escala 1+ goals
60%
L'Escala 2+ goals
23%
L'Escala 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Olot (draw refunded)
74%
L'Escala (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olot at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.85 · 33 matches

L'Escala away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.69 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olot attack 1.76 + L'Escala defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.73

L'Escala attack 0.96 + Olot defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Olot scores more
57%
level
24%
L'Escala scores more
20%

Olot at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Olot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
Marc Mas
56'
Marti Puigbert← Pablo Ufano
61'
Pablo Calvete← Iker Garcia
61'
I. Nemoto← Josu Currais
61'
Maha← Iván Amoedo
65'
Marc Roquet← Albert Blázquez
65'
Marco Gil← Guillem Terma
68'
Maha
74'
Pedro del Campo← Urri
74'
Pau Juvanteny← Oriol Ayala
82'
Roger Fortuny← David Grifell
85'
Marti Puigbert
89'
Marc Roquet
90+2'
P. Valencia
90'
P. Valencia← Izan González
Olot
L'Escala
Isaac Vila
Vila
David Grifell
▼
Grifell
Nil Congost
Congost
Xumetra
Xumetra
Josu Currais
▼
Currais
Iván Amoedo
▼
Amoedo
Xavi Aparicio
Aparicio
Adrià Ramirez
Ramirez
Izan González
▼
González
Eric Pimentel
Pimentel
Iker Garcia
▼
Garcia
Eric Mourin
Mourin
Albert Blázquez
▼
Blázquez
David Bigas
Bigas
Oriol Ayala
▼
Ayala
Roger Barnils
Barnils
Uri González
González
Urri
▼
Urri
Guillem Terma
▼
Terma
Jordi Manzano
Manzano
Marc Mas
⚽
Mas
Pablo Ufano
▼
Ufano
Pedro Dólera
Manager: Pedro Dólera
56'▲Marti Puigbert←▼Pablo Ufano
65'▲Marc Roquet←▼Albert Blázquez
65'▲Marco Gil←▼Guillem Terma
74'▲Pedro del Campo←▼Urri
74'▲Pau Juvanteny←▼Oriol Ayala

Olot substitutes

PuigbertRoquetGilCampoJuvanteny
Aday
Manager: Aday
61'▲Pablo Calvete←▼Iker Garcia
61'▲I. Nemoto←▼Josu Currais
61'▲Maha←▼Iván Amoedo
82'▲Roger Fortuny←▼David Grifell
90'▲P. Valencia←▼Izan González

L'Escala substitutes

CalveteNemotoMahaFortunyValencia

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Olot 3–1 L'Escala

Olot beat L'Escala 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on May 1, 2024.

Goals: Marc Mas (21'), Maha (68'), Marti Puigbert (85'), Marc Roquet (89').

The match was played at Camp Municipal d'Olot in Olot.