Olot 2–0 Grama: Result & Stats

Olot

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Grama

Sergi Arranz 90+3'

Carles Mas 6'

2/27/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 25Camp Municipal d'Olot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Olot50%

×Draw25%

Grama25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OlotExpected goals in this matchGrama

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.09

Olot

1.64

Grama

1.09

Olot creates 50% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 95 away

1.76

creates per match

1.34

0.85

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Olot

1.76

Grama

1.34

allows per match

Olot

0.85

Grama

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olot+0.00on par

Grama+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olot ↓

Grama →

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Olot or draw

75%

Olot or Grama

75%

Draw or Grama

50%

Winning margin

Olot wins by 2+

27%

Grama wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Olot 1+ goals

81%

Olot 2+ goals

49%

Olot 3+ goals

23%

Grama 1+ goals

66%

Grama 2+ goals

30%

Grama 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Olot (draw refunded)

66%

Grama (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Olot at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.85 · 33 matches

Grama away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.52 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Olot attack 1.76 + Grama defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.64

Grama attack 1.34 + Olot defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Olot scores more

50%

level

25%

Grama scores more

25%

Olot at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Olot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

Carles Mas

61'

Rosa← Ángel González

61'

Alex Montalban← Oriol Molins

65'

Éric Vilanova← Enric Vallès

74'

Xavi Ferrón← Eric Callis

74'

Mohamed← Xumetra

84'

Lucas Antonicelli← Guillem Escarrabill

90+3'

Sergi Arranz

Olot

Grama

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Albert Carbó

65'▲Éric Vilanova←▼Enric Vallès

74'▲Xavi Ferrón←▼Eric Callis

74'▲Mohamed←▼Xumetra

Olot substitutes

VilanovaFerrónMohamed

Manager: Juanma Pons

61'▲Rosa←▼Ángel González

61'▲Alex Montalban←▼Oriol Molins

84'▲Lucas Antonicelli←▼Guillem Escarrabill

Grama substitutes

RosaMontalbanAntonicelli

Olot 2 – 0 Grama

Olot beat Grama 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on February 27, 2022.

Goals: Carles Mas (6'), Sergi Arranz (90+3').

The match was played at Camp Municipal d'Olot in Olot.

Olot vs Grama — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Olot 2 – 0 Grama