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Olot vs Girona II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Olot
Olot
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Girona II
Girona II
10/3/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 5Camp Municipal d'Olot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Olot43%
×Draw28%
Girona II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olot
1.33
Girona II
1.04

Olot creates 28% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 78 away

creates per match

Olot
1.76
Girona II
1.23

allows per match

Olot
0.85
Girona II
0.91

finishing

Olot+0.00on par
Girona II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olot ↓

Girona II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Olot or draw
71%
Olot or Girona II
72%
Draw or Girona II
57%

Winning margin

Olot wins by 2+
20%
Girona II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Olot 1+ goals
74%
Olot 2+ goals
38%
Olot 3+ goals
15%
Girona II 1+ goals
65%
Girona II 2+ goals
28%
Girona II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Olot (draw refunded)
60%
Girona II (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olot at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.85 · 33 matches

Girona II away — creates 1.23, concedes 0.91 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olot attack 1.76 + Girona II defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.33

Girona II attack 1.23 + Olot defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Olot scores more
43%
level
28%
Girona II scores more
29%

Olot at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Olot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olot vs Girona II

Olot and Girona II drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on October 3, 2021.

The match was played at Camp Municipal d'Olot in Olot.