Girona II vs Olot — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2023
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 18+ matches
Girona II33%
Olot43%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Olot creates 17% more chances
Season form · 35 home / 18 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over56
- Under44
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes59
- No41
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Girona II ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Girona II at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.51 · 35 matches
Olot away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.61 · 18 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Girona II attack 2.11 + Olot defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 1.36
Olot attack 1.67 + Girona II defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.59
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 43%?"
Olot at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 43% does not mean "Olot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Olot substitutes
Head to Head
Olot
L'Hospitalet
Vilassar Mar
Badalona II
Prat
Tona
L'Escala
Reddis
Montañesa
GramaGirona II
Mollerussa
San Cristóbal
Peralada
Pobla Mafumet
Vilafranca
Castelldefels
RapitencaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Girona II host Olot on Sunday, 6 February 2022 at 11:30. The match is part of the Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2023/2024 season.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Girona II 0–1 Olot
Olot beat Girona II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on February 6, 2022.
Goals: Sergi Arranz (46').
The match was played at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi in Girona.