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Olmaliq vs Xorazm — League #802 2026

Olmaliq
Olmaliq
Preview
15:00
Xorazm
Xorazm
9/15/2026League #802League #802 · Round of 16OKMK Sport Majmuasi
Big match
54%
Olmaliq
model favours
54%20%27%

Olmaliq score first in only 6% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
77%
over 2.5 goals
74%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Olmaliq54%
×Draw20%
Xorazm27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olmaliq
2.41
Xorazm
1.68

Olmaliq creates 43% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Olmaliq
2.25
Xorazm
1.86

allows per match

Olmaliq
1.50
Xorazm
2.57

finishing

Olmaliq+0.00on par
Xorazm+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 77Under: 2377%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 74No: 2674%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olmaliq ↓

Xorazm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Olmaliq or draw
73%
Olmaliq or Xorazm
80%
Draw or Xorazm
46%

Winning margin

Olmaliq wins by 2+
33%
Xorazm wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Olmaliq 1+ goals
91%
Olmaliq 2+ goals
69%
Olmaliq 3+ goals
43%
Xorazm 1+ goals
81%
Xorazm 2+ goals
50%
Xorazm 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Olmaliq (draw refunded)
67%
Xorazm (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olmaliq at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Xorazm away — creates 1.86, concedes 2.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olmaliq attack 2.25 + Xorazm defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.41

Xorazm attack 1.86 + Olmaliq defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Olmaliq scores more
54%
level
20%
Xorazm scores more
27%

Olmaliq at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Olmaliq will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Olmaliq are unbeaten in 8 straight
  • Olmaliq have won 4 of the last 5 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Olmaliq
WWDWD
Xorazm
LLLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Olmaliq vs Xorazm — Match Preview

Olmaliq face Xorazm on September 15, 2026 in this League #802 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Olmaliq host Xorazm at OKMK Sport Majmuasi.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.