Olmaliq 4–2 Xorazm: Result & Stats | League #802

Olmaliq

4 – 2

HT: 3 – 0

Xorazm

Rubén Sánchez 88'

M. Mirakhmadov 39'

S. Haghnazari 33', 13'

T. Neville Mbanvei 90+1', 85'

9/3/2023

League #802 · Quarter-finalsOKMK Sport Majmuasi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Olmaliq54%

×Draw20%

Xorazm27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OlmaliqExpected goals in this matchXorazm

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.41

1.68

Olmaliq

2.41

Xorazm

1.68

Olmaliq creates 43% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

2.25

creates per match

1.86

1.50

allows per match

2.57

creates per match

Olmaliq

2.25

Xorazm

1.86

allows per match

Olmaliq

1.50

Xorazm

2.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olmaliq+0.00on par

Xorazm+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olmaliq ↓

Xorazm →

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Olmaliq or draw

73%

Olmaliq or Xorazm

80%

Draw or Xorazm

46%

Winning margin

Olmaliq wins by 2+

33%

Xorazm wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Olmaliq 1+ goals

91%

Olmaliq 2+ goals

69%

Olmaliq 3+ goals

43%

Xorazm 1+ goals

81%

Xorazm 2+ goals

50%

Xorazm 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Olmaliq (draw refunded)

67%

Xorazm (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Olmaliq at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Xorazm away — creates 1.86, concedes 2.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Olmaliq attack 2.25 + Xorazm defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.41

Xorazm attack 1.86 + Olmaliq defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

Olmaliq scores more

54%

level

20%

Xorazm scores more

27%

Olmaliq at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Olmaliq will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

S. Haghnazari

33'

S. Haghnazari

39'

M. Mirakhmadov

46'

M. Hasanov← S. Tursunov

46'

O. Rustamov← A. Abdullayev

61'

T. Ismailov← D. Yusupov

68'

M. Boakye← M. Mirakhmadov

68'

Rubén Sánchez← S. Haghnazari

71'

O. Niyazmetov← T. Ergashev

71'

K. Nurmetov← A. Bahromov

76'

A. Komilov← K. Giyosov

77'

U. Sharipov← J. Jumayev

77'

J. Atadjanov← R. Sultonov

85'

T. Neville Mbanvei

88'

Rubén Sánchez

90+1'

T. Neville Mbanvei

Olmaliq

Xorazm

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⚽2

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⚽2

▼

▼

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⚽

▼

Mirakhmad

Manager: M. Kasimov

46'▲M. Hasanov←▼S. Tursunov

46'▲O. Rustamov←▼A. Abdullayev

68'▲M. Boakye←▼M. Mirakhmadov

68'▲Rubén Sánchez←▼S. Haghnazari

76'▲A. Komilov←▼K. Giyosov

Olmaliq substitutes

HasanovRustamovBoakyeSánchezKomilov

Manager: R. Ahmedov

61'▲T. Ismailov←▼D. Yusupov

71'▲O. Niyazmetov←▼T. Ergashev

71'▲K. Nurmetov←▼A. Bahromov

77'▲U. Sharipov←▼J. Jumayev

77'▲J. Atadjanov←▼R. Sultonov

Xorazm substitutes

IsmailovNiyazmetovNurmetovSharipovAtadjanov