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Olmaliq vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — AFC Champions League 2018

Olmaliq
Olmaliq
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
4/21/2021AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group A - 3King Fahd International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Olmaliq37%
×Draw24%
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olmaliq
1.56
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 18 away

creates per match

Olmaliq
1.50
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
1.22

allows per match

Olmaliq
2.00
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
1.61

finishing

Olmaliq+0.00on par
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olmaliq ↓

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Olmaliq or draw
61%
Olmaliq or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
76%
Draw or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
63%

Winning margin

Olmaliq wins by 2+
18%
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Olmaliq 1+ goals
79%
Olmaliq 2+ goals
46%
Olmaliq 3+ goals
21%
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1+ goals
80%
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2+ goals
48%
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Olmaliq (draw refunded)
49%
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olmaliq at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.61 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olmaliq attack 1.50 + Shabab Al Ahli Dubai defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.56

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.22 + Olmaliq defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Olmaliq scores more
37%
level
24%
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai scores more
39%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Shabab Al Ahli Dubai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: Olmaliq 2–1 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

Olmaliq beat Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2-1 in AFC Champions League on April 21, 2021.

The match was played at King Fahd International Stadium in Riyadh.