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Olmaliq vs Qizilqum — Super League 2026

Olmaliq
Olmaliq
Preview
16:00
Qizilqum
Qizilqum
11/20/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 28OKMK Sport Majmuasi
Big match
55%
Olmaliq
model favours
55%24%21%

Olmaliq score first in only 6% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Olmaliq55%
×Draw24%
Qizilqum21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olmaliq
1.71
Qizilqum
0.94

Olmaliq creates 82% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 97 away

creates per match

Olmaliq
1.86
Qizilqum
0.71

allows per match

Olmaliq
1.17
Qizilqum
1.55

finishing

Olmaliq+0.00on par
Qizilqum+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 51Over: 4951%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No: 50Yes: 5050%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olmaliq ↓

Qizilqum →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Olmaliq or draw
79%
Olmaliq or Qizilqum
76%
Draw or Qizilqum
45%

Winning margin

Olmaliq wins by 2+
31%
Qizilqum wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Olmaliq 1+ goals
82%
Olmaliq 2+ goals
51%
Olmaliq 3+ goals
24%
Qizilqum 1+ goals
61%
Qizilqum 2+ goals
24%
Qizilqum 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Olmaliq (draw refunded)
73%
Qizilqum (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olmaliq at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.17 · 94 matches

Qizilqum away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.55 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olmaliq attack 1.86 + Qizilqum defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.71

Qizilqum attack 0.71 + Olmaliq defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Olmaliq scores more
55%
level
24%
Qizilqum scores more
21%

Olmaliq at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Olmaliq will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Olmaliq are unbeaten in 8 straight

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Olmaliq
WWDWD
Qizilqum
DLLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Olmaliq face Qizilqum (Super League)

Super League returns with Olmaliq hosting Qizilqum. Match starts November 20, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Olmaliq host Qizilqum at OKMK Sport Majmuasi.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.