Olmaliq 1–1 Neftchi: Result & Stats | Super League

Olmaliq

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Neftchi

K. Giyosov 43' (pen)

M. Ubaydullayev 89'

8/26/2023

Super League · Round 17OKMK Sport Majmuasi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Olmaliq39%

×Draw27%

Neftchi35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OlmaliqExpected goals in this matchNeftchi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.24

Olmaliq

1.33

Neftchi

1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 94 home / 61 away

1.86

creates per match

1.31

1.17

allows per match

0.79

creates per match

Olmaliq

1.86

Neftchi

1.31

allows per match

Olmaliq

1.17

Neftchi

0.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olmaliq+0.00on par

Neftchi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olmaliq ↓

Neftchi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Olmaliq or draw

65%

Olmaliq or Neftchi

73%

Draw or Neftchi

61%

Winning margin

Olmaliq wins by 2+

18%

Neftchi wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Olmaliq 1+ goals

74%

Olmaliq 2+ goals

38%

Olmaliq 3+ goals

15%

Neftchi 1+ goals

71%

Neftchi 2+ goals

35%

Neftchi 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Olmaliq (draw refunded)

53%

Neftchi (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olmaliq at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.17 · 94 matches

Neftchi away — creates 1.31, concedes 0.79 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olmaliq attack 1.86 + Neftchi defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.33

Neftchi attack 1.31 + Olmaliq defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Olmaliq scores more

39%

level

27%

Neftchi scores more

35%

Olmaliq at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Olmaliq will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

R. Sanchez

28'

U. Adkhamzoda

40'

L. Turaev

43'

K. GiyosovPenalty

45'

U. KhoshimovGoal Disallowed - offside

46'

B. Arabuli← U. Khoshimov

46'

D. Turopov← L. To‘rayev

58'

I. Tukhtakhujaev

69'

O. Rustamov← M. Kosimov

69'

S. Haghnazari← M. Boakye

69'

A. Gulomov← M. Gofurov

82'

B. Toshmirzaev← G. Nikabadze

89'

M. Mirakhmadov← Rubén Sánchez

89'

M. Ubaydullayev

90+4'

T. Mrčela← U. Adhamzoda

Olmaliq

Neftchi

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: M. Kasimov

69'▲O. Rustamov←▼M. Kosimov

69'▲S. Haghnazari←▼M. Boakye

89'▲M. Mirakhmadov←▼Rubén Sánchez

Olmaliq substitutes

RustamovHaghnazariMirakhmadovAkhmadalievYoqubovHasanovSunnatovDenisovRahimov

Manager: V. Ezhurov

46'▲B. Arabuli←▼U. Khoshimov

46'▲D. Turopov←▼L. To‘rayev

69'▲A. Gulomov←▼M. Gofurov

82'▲B. Toshmirzaev←▼G. Nikabadze

90+4'▲T. Mrčela←▼U. Adhamzoda

Neftchi substitutes

ArabuliTuropovGulomovToshmirzaevMrčelaTuraevMusaevNematkhonovLarin

Super League: Olmaliq 1–1 Neftchi

Olmaliq and Neftchi drew 1-1 in Super League on August 26, 2023.

Goals: K. Giyosov (43' pen), M. Ubaydullayev (89').

The match was played at OKMK Sport Majmuasi in Almalyk.

Olmaliq vs Neftchi — Super League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Super League: Olmaliq 1–1 Neftchi