Neftchi 1–0 Olmaliq: Result & Stats | Super League

Neftchi

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Olmaliq

J. Iskanderov 17' (pen)

10/19/2025

Super League · Round 25Istiqlol Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Neftchi54%

×Draw25%

Olmaliq21%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NeftchiExpected goals in this matchOlmaliq

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.93

Neftchi

1.65

Olmaliq

0.93

Neftchi creates 77% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 27 away

2.00

creates per match

1.15

0.72

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Neftchi

2.00

Olmaliq

1.15

allows per match

Neftchi

0.72

Olmaliq

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Neftchi+0.00on par

Olmaliq+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neftchi ↓

Olmaliq →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Neftchi or draw

79%

Neftchi or Olmaliq

75%

Draw or Olmaliq

46%

Winning margin

Neftchi wins by 2+

29%

Olmaliq wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Neftchi 1+ goals

81%

Neftchi 2+ goals

49%

Neftchi 3+ goals

23%

Olmaliq 1+ goals

61%

Olmaliq 2+ goals

24%

Olmaliq 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Neftchi (draw refunded)

72%

Olmaliq (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neftchi at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.72 · 25 matches

Olmaliq away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.30 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neftchi attack 2.00 + Olmaliq defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.65

Olmaliq attack 1.15 + Neftchi defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Neftchi scores more

54%

level

25%

Olmaliq scores more

21%

Neftchi at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Neftchi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

J. IskanderovPenalty

56'

R. Sanchez

60'

A. Sentoku← G. Papava

60'

N. Abdurazzakov← A. Sobirzhonov

63'

V. Jovovic← A. Odilov

63'

K. Ruziev← I. Yuldoshev

65'

A. Abdurakhmonov← A. Kholmurodov

72'

B. Ergashev

72'

A. Mukimzhonov← S. Akhrorov

74'

Z. Marusic← J. Iskanderov

81'

82'

86'

87'

90+3'

S. Nematzhonov← J. Kojo

90+3'

B. Toshmirzaev← A. Ismoilov

Neftchi

Olmaliq

35

Ilyosov

21

▼

6

20

7

8

▼

Kholmurod

99

▼

Sobirzhon

10

Giyosov

15

Rustamov

5

▼

Papava

11

Sanchez

1

Ergashev

6

▼

4

20

21

22

▼

Odilov

5

Alibaev

23

Djokic

10

⚽

▼

Iskandero

7

▼

Ismoilov

9

▼

Kojo

63'▲V. Jovovic←▼A. Odilov

63'▲K. Ruziev←▼I. Yuldoshev

74'▲Z. Marusic←▼J. Iskanderov

90+3'▲S. Nematzhonov←▼J. Kojo

90+3'▲B. Toshmirzaev←▼A. Ismoilov

Neftchi substitutes

8Jovovic11Ruziev15Nematzhonov24Gulyamov32Marusic33Yoqubjonov45Turaev70Nimely77Toshmirzaev

60'▲A. Sentoku←▼G. Papava

60'▲N. Abdurazzakov←▼A. Sobirzhonov

65'▲A. Abdurakhmonov←▼A. Kholmurodov

72'▲A. Mukimzhonov←▼S. Akhrorov

Olmaliq substitutes

13Begimov16Senaga19Mukimzhonov27Abdurakhmonov28Sentoku30Sarimsakov77Abdurazzakov88AbdunabievYuldashev