Olmaliq 2–1 Navbahor: Result & Stats | Super League

Olmaliq

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Navbahor

M. Klepač 90+8'

K. Daci 18'

F. Ivanović 74'

8/12/2024

Super League · Round 15OKMK Sport Majmuasi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Olmaliq51%

×Draw24%

Navbahor25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OlmaliqExpected goals in this matchNavbahor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.12

Olmaliq

1.69

Navbahor

1.12

Olmaliq creates 51% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 24 away

1.84

creates per match

1.21

1.03

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Olmaliq

1.84

Navbahor

1.21

allows per match

Olmaliq

1.03

Navbahor

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olmaliq+0.00on par

Navbahor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olmaliq ↓

Navbahor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Olmaliq or draw

75%

Olmaliq or Navbahor

76%

Draw or Navbahor

49%

Winning margin

Olmaliq wins by 2+

27%

Navbahor wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Olmaliq 1+ goals

82%

Olmaliq 2+ goals

50%

Olmaliq 3+ goals

24%

Navbahor 1+ goals

67%

Navbahor 2+ goals

31%

Navbahor 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Olmaliq (draw refunded)

67%

Navbahor (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olmaliq at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.03 · 32 matches

Navbahor away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.54 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olmaliq attack 1.84 + Navbahor defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.69

Navbahor attack 1.21 + Olmaliq defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Olmaliq scores more

51%

level

24%

Navbahor scores more

25%

Olmaliq at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Olmaliq will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

K. Daci

24'

G. Nikabadze

53'

K. Tojidinov← S. Haghnazari

53'

R. Jiyanov← A. Akhmedov

65'

K. Daci

71'

A. Kholmurodov← M. Kosimov

71'

N. Abdurazzoqov← Rubén Sánchez

73'

A. Komilov

74'

F. Ivanović

78'

D. Akhmadaliev

85'

A. Abdurahmonov← K. Daci

85'

M. Klepač← A. Sentoku

87'

I. Rukhadze← K. Giyosov

87'

A. Juraboyev← A. Ismailov

88'

J. Boltaboev

90+8'

M. Klepač

Olmaliq

Navbahor

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Daci

Manager: M. Kasimov

71'▲A. Kholmurodov←▼M. Kosimov

71'▲N. Abdurazzoqov←▼Rubén Sánchez

85'▲A. Abdurahmonov←▼K. Daci

85'▲M. Klepač←▼A. Sentoku

87'▲I. Rukhadze←▼K. Giyosov

Olmaliq substitutes

KholmurodovAbdurazzoqovAbdurahmonovKlepačRukhadzeBahromovAkhrorovGadoevRahimov

Manager: S. Lushchan

53'▲K. Tojidinov←▼S. Haghnazari

53'▲R. Jiyanov←▼A. Akhmedov

87'▲A. Juraboyev←▼A. Ismailov

Navbahor substitutes

TojidinovJiyanovJuraboyevAbdulhayevSuyunovKarimovYolchiyevTursunov