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Olmaliq vs Istiqlol — AFC Champions League 2018

Olmaliq
Olmaliq
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Istiqlol
Istiqlol
2/12/2019AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · 2nd Preliminary RoundMetallurg Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Olmaliq43%
×Draw24%
Istiqlol33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olmaliq
1.63
Istiqlol
1.42

Olmaliq creates 15% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 12 away

creates per match

Olmaliq
1.50
Istiqlol
0.83

allows per match

Olmaliq
2.00
Istiqlol
1.75

finishing

Olmaliq+0.00on par
Istiqlol+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olmaliq ↓

Istiqlol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Olmaliq or draw
67%
Olmaliq or Istiqlol
76%
Draw or Istiqlol
57%

Winning margin

Olmaliq wins by 2+
22%
Istiqlol wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Olmaliq 1+ goals
80%
Olmaliq 2+ goals
48%
Olmaliq 3+ goals
22%
Istiqlol 1+ goals
76%
Istiqlol 2+ goals
41%
Istiqlol 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Olmaliq (draw refunded)
56%
Istiqlol (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olmaliq at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

Istiqlol away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olmaliq attack 1.50 + Istiqlol defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.63

Istiqlol attack 0.83 + Olmaliq defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Olmaliq scores more
43%
level
24%
Istiqlol scores more
33%

Olmaliq at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Olmaliq will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: Olmaliq 4–2 Istiqlol

Olmaliq beat Istiqlol 4-2 in AFC Champions League on February 12, 2019.

The match was played at Metallurg Stadium in Olmaliq.