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Olmaliq vs Dinamo Samarqand — Super League 2026

Olmaliq
Olmaliq
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dinamo Samarqand
Dinamo Samarqand
4/6/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 4OKMK Sport Majmuasi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Olmaliq52%
×Draw23%
Dinamo Samarqand25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olmaliq
1.81
Dinamo Samarqand
1.18

Olmaliq creates 53% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 59 away

creates per match

Olmaliq
1.85
Dinamo Samarqand
1.22

allows per match

Olmaliq
1.14
Dinamo Samarqand
1.78

finishing

Olmaliq+0.00on par
Dinamo Samarqand+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olmaliq ↓

Dinamo Samarqand →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Olmaliq or draw
75%
Olmaliq or Dinamo Samarqand
77%
Draw or Dinamo Samarqand
48%

Winning margin

Olmaliq wins by 2+
29%
Dinamo Samarqand wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Olmaliq 1+ goals
84%
Olmaliq 2+ goals
54%
Olmaliq 3+ goals
27%
Dinamo Samarqand 1+ goals
69%
Dinamo Samarqand 2+ goals
33%
Dinamo Samarqand 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Olmaliq (draw refunded)
68%
Dinamo Samarqand (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olmaliq at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.14 · 99 matches

Dinamo Samarqand away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.78 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olmaliq attack 1.85 + Dinamo Samarqand defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.81

Dinamo Samarqand attack 1.22 + Olmaliq defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Olmaliq scores more
52%
level
23%
Dinamo Samarqand scores more
25%

Olmaliq at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Olmaliq will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Olmaliq 0–0 Dinamo Samarqand

Olmaliq and Dinamo Samarqand drew 0-0 in Super League on April 6, 2025.

The match was played at OKMK Sport Majmuasi in Olmaliq.