Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Olmaliq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC — AFC Champions League 2018

Olmaliq
Olmaliq
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
4/27/2021AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group A - 5Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Olmaliq23%
×Draw22%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olmaliq
1.23
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
2.02

Al-Hilal Saudi FC creates 64% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 39 away

creates per match

Olmaliq
1.50
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
2.05

allows per match

Olmaliq
2.00
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
0.97

finishing

Olmaliq+0.00on par
Al-Hilal Saudi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olmaliq ↓

Al-Hilal Saudi FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Olmaliq or draw
45%
Olmaliq or Al-Hilal Saudi FC
78%
Draw or Al-Hilal Saudi FC
77%

Winning margin

Olmaliq wins by 2+
9%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Olmaliq 1+ goals
71%
Olmaliq 2+ goals
35%
Olmaliq 3+ goals
13%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1+ goals
87%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2+ goals
60%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Olmaliq (draw refunded)
29%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olmaliq at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

Al-Hilal Saudi FC away — creates 2.05, concedes 0.97 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olmaliq attack 1.50 + Al-Hilal Saudi FC defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.23

Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 2.05 + Olmaliq defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Olmaliq scores more
23%
level
22%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC scores more
55%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Al-Hilal Saudi FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: Olmaliq 0–3 Al-Hilal Saudi FC

Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Olmaliq 3-0 in AFC Champions League on April 27, 2021.

The match was played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium in Riyadh.