Olivenza vs RCP Valverdeño: Preview & Prediction

Olivenza

CANC

00:00

RCP Valverdeño

3/22/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 30Ciudad Deportiva de Olivenza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Olivenza49%

×Draw25%

RCP Valverdeño25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OlivenzaExpected goals in this matchRCP Valverdeño

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.05

Olivenza

1.57

RCP Valverdeño

1.05

Olivenza creates 50% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 46 away

1.29

creates per match

0.72

1.38

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Olivenza

1.29

RCP Valverdeño

0.72

allows per match

Olivenza

1.38

RCP Valverdeño

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olivenza+0.00on par

RCP Valverdeño+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olivenza ↓

RCP Valverdeño →

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Olivenza or draw

75%

Olivenza or RCP Valverdeño

75%

Draw or RCP Valverdeño

51%

Winning margin

Olivenza wins by 2+

25%

RCP Valverdeño wins by 2+

Team goals

Olivenza 1+ goals

79%

Olivenza 2+ goals

46%

Olivenza 3+ goals

21%

RCP Valverdeño 1+ goals

65%

RCP Valverdeño 2+ goals

28%

RCP Valverdeño 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Olivenza (draw refunded)

66%

RCP Valverdeño (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Olivenza at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.38 · 93 matches

RCP Valverdeño away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.85 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Olivenza attack 1.29 + RCP Valverdeño defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.57

RCP Valverdeño attack 0.72 + Olivenza defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Olivenza scores more

49%

level

25%

RCP Valverdeño scores more

25%

Olivenza at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Olivenza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Olivenza vs RCP Valverdeño — Match Preview

Olivenza face RCP Valverdeño on March 22, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Olivenza host RCP Valverdeño at Ciudad Deportiva de Olivenza.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Olivenza vs RCP Valverdeño — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Olivenza vs RCP Valverdeño — Match Preview