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Olivenza vs Extremadura UD II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Olivenza
Olivenza
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Extremadura UD II
Extremadura UD II
10/24/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 7Ciudad Deportiva Ramón Rocha Maqueda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Olivenza39%
×Draw27%
Extremadura UD II34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olivenza
1.27
Extremadura UD II
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 93 home / 42 away

creates per match

Olivenza
1.29
Extremadura UD II
0.93

allows per match

Olivenza
1.38
Extremadura UD II
1.24

finishing

Olivenza+0.00on par
Extremadura UD II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olivenza ↓

Extremadura UD II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Olivenza or draw
66%
Olivenza or Extremadura UD II
73%
Draw or Extremadura UD II
61%

Winning margin

Olivenza wins by 2+
17%
Extremadura UD II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Olivenza 1+ goals
72%
Olivenza 2+ goals
36%
Olivenza 3+ goals
14%
Extremadura UD II 1+ goals
69%
Extremadura UD II 2+ goals
32%
Extremadura UD II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Olivenza (draw refunded)
54%
Extremadura UD II (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olivenza at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.38 · 93 matches

Extremadura UD II away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.24 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olivenza attack 1.29 + Extremadura UD II defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.27

Extremadura UD II attack 0.93 + Olivenza defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Olivenza scores more
39%
level
27%
Extremadura UD II scores more
34%

Olivenza at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Olivenza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Olivenza 1 – 1 Extremadura UD II

Olivenza and Extremadura UD II drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on October 24, 2021.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Ramón Rocha Maqueda in Olivenza.