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Olivenza vs Extremadura 1924 — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Olivenza
Olivenza
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Extremadura 1924
Extremadura 1924
2/16/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 22Ciudad Deportiva Ramón Rocha Maqueda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Olivenza27%
×Draw28%
Extremadura 192445%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olivenza
0.94
Extremadura 1924
1.31

Extremadura 1924 creates 39% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 17 away

creates per match

Olivenza
1.29
Extremadura 1924
1.24

allows per match

Olivenza
1.38
Extremadura 1924
0.59

finishing

Olivenza+0.00on par
Extremadura 1924+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olivenza ↓

Extremadura 1924 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Olivenza or draw
55%
Olivenza or Extremadura 1924
72%
Draw or Extremadura 1924
73%

Winning margin

Olivenza wins by 2+
9%
Extremadura 1924 wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Olivenza 1+ goals
61%
Olivenza 2+ goals
24%
Olivenza 3+ goals
7%
Extremadura 1924 1+ goals
73%
Extremadura 1924 2+ goals
38%
Extremadura 1924 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Olivenza (draw refunded)
37%
Extremadura 1924 (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olivenza at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.38 · 93 matches

Extremadura 1924 away — creates 1.24, concedes 0.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olivenza attack 1.29 + Extremadura 1924 defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.94

Extremadura 1924 attack 1.24 + Olivenza defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Olivenza scores more
27%
level
28%
Extremadura 1924 scores more
45%

Extremadura 1924 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Extremadura 1924 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: Olivenza 0–3 Extremadura 1924

Extremadura 1924 beat Olivenza 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on February 16, 2025.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Ramón Rocha Maqueda in Olivenza.