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Olivenza vs Don Álvaro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Olivenza
Olivenza
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Don Álvaro
Don Álvaro
3/3/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 24Ciudad Deportiva Ramón Rocha Maqueda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Olivenza50%
×Draw25%
Don Álvaro25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olivenza
1.59
Don Álvaro
1.05

Olivenza creates 51% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 47 away

creates per match

Olivenza
1.29
Don Álvaro
0.72

allows per match

Olivenza
1.38
Don Álvaro
1.89

finishing

Olivenza+0.00on par
Don Álvaro+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olivenza ↓

Don Álvaro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Olivenza or draw
75%
Olivenza or Don Álvaro
75%
Draw or Don Álvaro
50%

Winning margin

Olivenza wins by 2+
26%
Don Álvaro wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Olivenza 1+ goals
80%
Olivenza 2+ goals
47%
Olivenza 3+ goals
21%
Don Álvaro 1+ goals
65%
Don Álvaro 2+ goals
28%
Don Álvaro 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Olivenza (draw refunded)
67%
Don Álvaro (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olivenza at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.38 · 93 matches

Don Álvaro away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.89 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olivenza attack 1.29 + Don Álvaro defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.59

Don Álvaro attack 0.72 + Olivenza defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Olivenza scores more
50%
level
25%
Don Álvaro scores more
25%

Olivenza at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Olivenza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: Olivenza 2–0 Don Álvaro

Olivenza beat Don Álvaro 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Ramón Rocha Maqueda in Olivenza.