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Olivenza vs Diocesano — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Olivenza
Olivenza
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Diocesano
Diocesano
3/30/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 28Ciudad Deportiva Ramón Rocha Maqueda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Olivenza36%
×Draw26%
Diocesano39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olivenza
1.33
Diocesano
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 93 home / 93 away

creates per match

Olivenza
1.29
Diocesano
1.42

allows per match

Olivenza
1.38
Diocesano
1.38

finishing

Olivenza+0.00on par
Diocesano+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olivenza ↓

Diocesano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Olivenza or draw
61%
Olivenza or Diocesano
74%
Draw or Diocesano
64%

Winning margin

Olivenza wins by 2+
16%
Diocesano wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Olivenza 1+ goals
74%
Olivenza 2+ goals
38%
Olivenza 3+ goals
15%
Diocesano 1+ goals
75%
Diocesano 2+ goals
41%
Diocesano 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Olivenza (draw refunded)
48%
Diocesano (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olivenza at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.38 · 93 matches

Diocesano away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.38 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olivenza attack 1.29 + Diocesano defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.33

Diocesano attack 1.42 + Olivenza defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Olivenza scores more
36%
level
26%
Diocesano scores more
39%

Diocesano at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Diocesano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: Olivenza 2–2 Diocesano

Olivenza and Diocesano drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on March 30, 2025.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Ramón Rocha Maqueda in Olivenza.