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Olivenza vs Chinato — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Olivenza
Olivenza
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Chinato
Chinato
5/16/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 2nd Phase - 8Ciudad Deportiva de Olivenza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Olivenza53%
×Draw24%
Chinato23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olivenza
1.71
Chinato
1.05

Olivenza creates 63% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 15 away

creates per match

Olivenza
1.29
Chinato
0.73

allows per match

Olivenza
1.38
Chinato
2.13

finishing

Olivenza+0.00on par
Chinato+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olivenza ↓

Chinato →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Olivenza or draw
77%
Olivenza or Chinato
76%
Draw or Chinato
47%

Winning margin

Olivenza wins by 2+
29%
Chinato wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Olivenza 1+ goals
82%
Olivenza 2+ goals
51%
Olivenza 3+ goals
24%
Chinato 1+ goals
65%
Chinato 2+ goals
28%
Chinato 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Olivenza (draw refunded)
69%
Chinato (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olivenza at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.38 · 93 matches

Chinato away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olivenza attack 1.29 + Chinato defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.71

Chinato attack 0.73 + Olivenza defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Olivenza scores more
53%
level
24%
Chinato scores more
23%

Olivenza at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Olivenza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: Olivenza 1–0 Chinato

Olivenza beat Chinato 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on May 16, 2021.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Olivenza in Olivenza.