Olivenza 2–1 Castuera: Result & Stats

Olivenza

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Castuera

3/16/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 26Ciudad Deportiva Ramón Rocha Maqueda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Olivenza44%

×Draw26%

Castuera30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OlivenzaExpected goals in this matchCastuera

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.13

Olivenza

1.44

Castuera

1.13

Olivenza creates 27% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 34 away

1.29

creates per match

0.88

1.38

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Olivenza

1.29

Castuera

0.88

allows per match

Olivenza

1.38

Castuera

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olivenza+0.00on par

Castuera+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olivenza ↓

Castuera →

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Olivenza or draw

70%

Olivenza or Castuera

74%

Draw or Castuera

56%

Winning margin

Olivenza wins by 2+

21%

Castuera wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Olivenza 1+ goals

76%

Olivenza 2+ goals

42%

Olivenza 3+ goals

18%

Castuera 1+ goals

68%

Castuera 2+ goals

31%

Castuera 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Olivenza (draw refunded)

60%

Castuera (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Olivenza at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.38 · 93 matches

Castuera away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.59 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Olivenza attack 1.29 + Castuera defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.44

Castuera attack 0.88 + Olivenza defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Olivenza scores more

44%

level

26%

Castuera scores more

30%

Olivenza at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Olivenza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff