Olivenza 0–1 Campanario: Result & Stats

Olivenza

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Campanario

4/4/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 2nd Phase - 2Ciudad Deportiva de Olivenza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Olivenza55%

×Draw23%

Campanario22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OlivenzaExpected goals in this matchCampanario

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.02

Olivenza

1.78

Campanario

1.02

Olivenza creates 75% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 15 away

1.29

creates per match

0.67

1.38

allows per match

2.27

creates per match

Olivenza

1.29

Campanario

0.67

allows per match

Olivenza

1.38

Campanario

2.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olivenza+0.00on par

Campanario+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olivenza ↓

Campanario →

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Olivenza or draw

78%

Olivenza or Campanario

77%

Draw or Campanario

45%

Winning margin

Olivenza wins by 2+

31%

Campanario wins by 2+

Team goals

Olivenza 1+ goals

83%

Olivenza 2+ goals

53%

Olivenza 3+ goals

26%

Campanario 1+ goals

64%

Campanario 2+ goals

27%

Campanario 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Olivenza (draw refunded)

72%

Campanario (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Olivenza at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.38 · 93 matches

Campanario away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Olivenza attack 1.29 + Campanario defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.78

Campanario attack 0.67 + Olivenza defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

Olivenza scores more

55%

level

23%

Campanario scores more

22%

Olivenza at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Olivenza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff