Olivenza 0–2 Azuaga: Result & Stats

Olivenza

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Azuaga

2/18/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 22Ciudad Deportiva Ramón Rocha Maqueda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Olivenza34%

×Draw26%

Azuaga40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OlivenzaExpected goals in this matchAzuaga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.36

Olivenza

1.23

Azuaga

1.36

Azuaga creates 11% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 108 away

1.29

creates per match

1.34

1.38

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Olivenza

1.29

Azuaga

1.34

allows per match

Olivenza

1.38

Azuaga

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olivenza+0.00on par

Azuaga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olivenza ↓

Azuaga →

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Olivenza or draw

60%

Olivenza or Azuaga

74%

Draw or Azuaga

66%

Winning margin

Olivenza wins by 2+

14%

Azuaga wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Olivenza 1+ goals

71%

Olivenza 2+ goals

35%

Olivenza 3+ goals

13%

Azuaga 1+ goals

74%

Azuaga 2+ goals

39%

Azuaga 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Olivenza (draw refunded)

46%

Azuaga (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Olivenza at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.38 · 93 matches

Azuaga away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.18 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Olivenza attack 1.29 + Azuaga defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.23

Azuaga attack 1.34 + Olivenza defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Olivenza scores more

34%

level

26%

Azuaga scores more

40%

Azuaga at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Azuaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff