Olivenza 3–3 Aceuchal: Result & Stats

Olivenza

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Aceuchal

12/1/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 16Ciudad Deportiva de Olivenza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Olivenza43%

×Draw26%

Aceuchal31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OlivenzaExpected goals in this matchAceuchal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.17

Olivenza

1.45

Aceuchal

1.17

Olivenza creates 24% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 40 away

1.29

creates per match

0.95

1.38

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Olivenza

1.29

Aceuchal

0.95

allows per match

Olivenza

1.38

Aceuchal

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olivenza+0.00on par

Aceuchal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olivenza ↓

Aceuchal →

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Olivenza or draw

69%

Olivenza or Aceuchal

74%

Draw or Aceuchal

57%

Winning margin

Olivenza wins by 2+

21%

Aceuchal wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Olivenza 1+ goals

77%

Olivenza 2+ goals

42%

Olivenza 3+ goals

18%

Aceuchal 1+ goals

69%

Aceuchal 2+ goals

33%

Aceuchal 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Olivenza (draw refunded)

59%

Aceuchal (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Olivenza at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.38 · 93 matches

Aceuchal away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.60 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Olivenza attack 1.29 + Aceuchal defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.45

Aceuchal attack 0.95 + Olivenza defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Olivenza scores more

43%

level

26%

Aceuchal scores more

31%

Olivenza at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Olivenza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff