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Oliveirense vs Vitoria Setubal — Liga 3 2021

Oliveirense
Oliveirense
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Vitoria Setubal
Vitoria Setubal
3/20/2022Liga 3Liga 3 · Promotion Group - 1Estádio Carlos Osório

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Oliveirense49%
×Draw24%
Vitoria Setubal27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oliveirense
1.68
Vitoria Setubal
1.19

Oliveirense creates 41% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 28 away

creates per match

Oliveirense
1.79
Vitoria Setubal
0.96

allows per match

Oliveirense
1.43
Vitoria Setubal
1.57

finishing

Oliveirense+0.00on par
Vitoria Setubal+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oliveirense ↓

Vitoria Setubal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Oliveirense or draw
73%
Oliveirense or Vitoria Setubal
76%
Draw or Vitoria Setubal
51%

Winning margin

Oliveirense wins by 2+
26%
Vitoria Setubal wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Oliveirense 1+ goals
81%
Oliveirense 2+ goals
50%
Oliveirense 3+ goals
24%
Vitoria Setubal 1+ goals
70%
Vitoria Setubal 2+ goals
33%
Vitoria Setubal 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Oliveirense (draw refunded)
64%
Vitoria Setubal (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oliveirense at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

Vitoria Setubal away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.57 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oliveirense attack 1.79 + Vitoria Setubal defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.68

Vitoria Setubal attack 0.96 + Oliveirense defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Oliveirense scores more
49%
level
24%
Vitoria Setubal scores more
27%

Oliveirense at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Oliveirense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oliveirense vs Vitoria Setubal

Oliveirense beat Vitoria Setubal 2-1 in Liga 3 on March 20, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Carlos Osório in Oliveira de Azeméis.