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Oliveirense vs União de Leiria — Segunda Liga 2018

Oliveirense
Oliveirense
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
União de Leiria
União de Leiria
12/22/2024Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 15Estádio Carlos Osório

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Oliveirense33%
×Draw26%
União de Leiria40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oliveirense
1.23
União de Leiria
1.38

União de Leiria creates 12% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 51 away

creates per match

Oliveirense
1.32
União de Leiria
1.37

allows per match

Oliveirense
1.38
União de Leiria
1.14

finishing

Oliveirense+0.00on par
União de Leiria+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oliveirense ↓

União de Leiria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Oliveirense or draw
60%
Oliveirense or União de Leiria
74%
Draw or União de Leiria
67%

Winning margin

Oliveirense wins by 2+
14%
União de Leiria wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Oliveirense 1+ goals
71%
Oliveirense 2+ goals
35%
Oliveirense 3+ goals
13%
União de Leiria 1+ goals
75%
União de Leiria 2+ goals
40%
União de Leiria 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Oliveirense (draw refunded)
45%
União de Leiria (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oliveirense at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.38 · 114 matches

União de Leiria away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.14 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oliveirense attack 1.32 + União de Leiria defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.23

União de Leiria attack 1.37 + Oliveirense defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Oliveirense scores more
33%
level
26%
União de Leiria scores more
40%

União de Leiria at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "União de Leiria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oliveirense vs União de Leiria

União de Leiria beat Oliveirense 2-1 in Segunda Liga on December 22, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Carlos Osório in Oliveira de Azeméis.