Oliveirense 1–3 Tondela: Result & Stats

Oliveirense

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Tondela

Mesaque Dju 84'

Pedro Maranhão 90+8'

Costinha 89' (pen)

Ricardo Alves 21'

3/29/2025

Segunda Liga · Round 27Estádio Carlos Osório

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Oliveirense33%

×Draw26%

Tondela41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OliveirenseExpected goals in this matchTondela

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.38

Oliveirense

1.20

Tondela

1.38

Tondela creates 15% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 51 away

1.33

creates per match

1.39

1.37

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Oliveirense

1.33

Tondela

1.39

allows per match

Oliveirense

1.37

Tondela

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oliveirense+0.00on par

Tondela+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oliveirense ↓

Tondela →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Oliveirense or draw

59%

Oliveirense or Tondela

74%

Draw or Tondela

67%

Winning margin

Oliveirense wins by 2+

14%

Tondela wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Oliveirense 1+ goals

70%

Oliveirense 2+ goals

34%

Oliveirense 3+ goals

12%

Tondela 1+ goals

75%

Tondela 2+ goals

40%

Tondela 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Oliveirense (draw refunded)

44%

Tondela (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oliveirense at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.37 · 113 matches

Tondela away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.06 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oliveirense attack 1.33 + Tondela defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.20

Tondela attack 1.39 + Oliveirense defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Oliveirense scores more

33%

level

26%

Tondela scores more

41%

Tondela at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tondela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Costinha

Tondela · F

7.9

Match Events

21'

Ricardo Alves

63'

Roberto← Miro

63'

Pedro Maranhão← Bebeto

66'

Mesaque Dju← João Silva

66'

Miguel Monteiro← Zé Manuel

66'

Sabino← André Santos

70'

E. Maviram← Rodrigo Ramos

83'

Tiago Manso

84'

Mesaque Dju

86'

Sabino

89'

CostinhaPenalty

90+2'

Diogo Casimiro

90+2'

João Cesco← Tiago Manso

90+2'

Cícero← Nuno Cunha

90+8'

Pedro Maranhão

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OliveirenseTondela

Overview

66%Possession34%

14Total Shots13

3Corners4

11Fouls15

Shots

14Total Shots13

4On Target6

5Off Target3

5Blocked4

6Inside Box11

8Outside Box2

Passing

66%Possession34%

499Total Passes255

428Accurate Passes191

86%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls15

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2