Oliveirense 2–2 Penafiel: Result & Stats

Oliveirense

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Penafiel

1/20/2025

Segunda Liga · Round 18Estádio Carlos Osório

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 114+ matches

Oliveirense41%

×Draw27%

Penafiel33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OliveirenseExpected goals in this matchPenafiel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.19

Oliveirense

1.36

Penafiel

1.19

Oliveirense creates 14% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 132 away

1.32

creates per match

1.01

1.38

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Oliveirense

1.32

Penafiel

1.01

allows per match

Oliveirense

1.38

Penafiel

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oliveirense+0.00on par

Penafiel+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oliveirense ↓

Penafiel →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Oliveirense or draw

67%

Oliveirense or Penafiel

73%

Draw or Penafiel

59%

Winning margin

Oliveirense wins by 2+

19%

Penafiel wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Oliveirense 1+ goals

74%

Oliveirense 2+ goals

39%

Oliveirense 3+ goals

16%

Penafiel 1+ goals

70%

Penafiel 2+ goals

33%

Penafiel 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Oliveirense (draw refunded)

55%

Penafiel (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oliveirense at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.38 · 114 matches

Penafiel away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.41 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oliveirense attack 1.32 + Penafiel defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.36

Penafiel attack 1.01 + Oliveirense defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Oliveirense scores more

41%

level

27%

Penafiel scores more

33%

Oliveirense at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Oliveirense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff