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Oliveirense vs Pacos Ferreira — Segunda Liga 2018

Oliveirense
Oliveirense
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Pacos Ferreira
Pacos Ferreira
10/5/2024Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 7Estádio Carlos Osório

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Oliveirense38%
×Draw27%
Pacos Ferreira35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oliveirense
1.25
Pacos Ferreira
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 114 home / 69 away

creates per match

Oliveirense
1.32
Pacos Ferreira
1.00

allows per match

Oliveirense
1.38
Pacos Ferreira
1.19

finishing

Oliveirense+0.00on par
Pacos Ferreira+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oliveirense ↓

Pacos Ferreira →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Oliveirense or draw
65%
Oliveirense or Pacos Ferreira
73%
Draw or Pacos Ferreira
62%

Winning margin

Oliveirense wins by 2+
16%
Pacos Ferreira wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Oliveirense 1+ goals
71%
Oliveirense 2+ goals
36%
Oliveirense 3+ goals
13%
Pacos Ferreira 1+ goals
70%
Pacos Ferreira 2+ goals
33%
Pacos Ferreira 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Oliveirense (draw refunded)
52%
Pacos Ferreira (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oliveirense at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.38 · 114 matches

Pacos Ferreira away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.19 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oliveirense attack 1.32 + Pacos Ferreira defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.25

Pacos Ferreira attack 1.00 + Oliveirense defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Oliveirense scores more
38%
level
27%
Pacos Ferreira scores more
35%

Oliveirense at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Oliveirense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda Liga: Oliveirense 0–2 Pacos Ferreira

Pacos Ferreira beat Oliveirense 2-0 in Segunda Liga on October 5, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Carlos Osório in Oliveira de Azeméis.