Oliveirense 2–3 Fafe: Result & Stats | Liga 3

Oliveirense

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Fafe

Raniel 59'

Duarte Duarte 43'

Zé Oliveira 90+1', 72'

Pedro Matos 4'

2/5/2022

Liga 3 · Round 18Estádio Carlos Osório

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Oliveirense44%

×Draw24%

Fafe31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OliveirenseExpected goals in this matchFafe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.32

Oliveirense

1.61

Fafe

1.32

Oliveirense creates 22% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 72 away

1.79

creates per match

1.21

1.43

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Oliveirense

1.79

Fafe

1.21

allows per match

Oliveirense

1.43

Fafe

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oliveirense+0.00on par

Fafe+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oliveirense ↓

Fafe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Oliveirense or draw

69%

Oliveirense or Fafe

76%

Draw or Fafe

56%

Winning margin

Oliveirense wins by 2+

23%

Fafe wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Oliveirense 1+ goals

80%

Oliveirense 2+ goals

48%

Oliveirense 3+ goals

22%

Fafe 1+ goals

73%

Fafe 2+ goals

38%

Fafe 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Oliveirense (draw refunded)

58%

Fafe (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oliveirense at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

Fafe away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.44 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oliveirense attack 1.79 + Fafe defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.61

Fafe attack 1.21 + Oliveirense defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Oliveirense scores more

44%

level

24%

Fafe scores more

31%

Oliveirense at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Oliveirense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

43'

59'

62'

72'

75'

João Paredes← Vítor Pisco

75'

Simão Fernandes← Raniel

79'

Filipe Marques← Duarte Duarte

81'

Nuno Silva← João Castro

85'

Filipe Maio← Bruno Sousa

85'

José Marcelo← Luizinho Silva

89'

Andorinha← João Santos

90+1'

Zé Oliveira

Oliveirense

Fafe

⚽2

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Raniel

▼

Pisco

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Fábio Pereira

75'▲João Paredes←▼Vítor Pisco

75'▲Simão Fernandes←▼Raniel

79'▲Filipe Marques←▼Duarte Duarte

85'▲Filipe Maio←▼Bruno Sousa

85'▲José Marcelo←▼Luizinho Silva

Oliveirense substitutes

ParedesFernandesMarquesMaioMarcelo

Manager: João Pedro Coelho

81'▲Nuno Silva←▼João Castro

89'▲Andorinha←▼João Santos

Fafe substitutes

SilvaAndorinha