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Oliveirense vs Academico Viseu — Segunda Liga 2018

Oliveirense
Oliveirense
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Academico Viseu
Academico Viseu
9/15/2025Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 5Estadio Carlos Osorio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 114+ matches

Oliveirense39%
×Draw26%
Academico Viseu35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oliveirense
1.35
Academico Viseu
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 114 home / 133 away

creates per match

Oliveirense
1.32
Academico Viseu
1.16

allows per match

Oliveirense
1.38
Academico Viseu
1.38

finishing

Oliveirense+0.00on par
Academico Viseu+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oliveirense ↓

Academico Viseu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Oliveirense or draw
65%
Oliveirense or Academico Viseu
74%
Draw or Academico Viseu
61%

Winning margin

Oliveirense wins by 2+
18%
Academico Viseu wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Oliveirense 1+ goals
74%
Oliveirense 2+ goals
39%
Oliveirense 3+ goals
15%
Academico Viseu 1+ goals
72%
Academico Viseu 2+ goals
36%
Academico Viseu 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Oliveirense (draw refunded)
53%
Academico Viseu (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oliveirense at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.38 · 114 matches

Academico Viseu away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.38 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oliveirense attack 1.32 + Academico Viseu defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.35

Academico Viseu attack 1.16 + Oliveirense defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Oliveirense scores more
39%
level
26%
Academico Viseu scores more
35%

Oliveirense at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Oliveirense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda Liga: Oliveirense 2–2 Academico Viseu

Oliveirense and Academico Viseu drew 2-2 in Segunda Liga on September 15, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Carlos Osorio in Oliveira de Azemeis.