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Oliveira Hospital vs Sporting CP B — Liga 3 2021

Oliveira Hospital
Oliveira Hospital
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Sporting CP B
Sporting CP B
11/10/2024Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 11Estádio Municipal de Tábua

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Oliveira Hospital40%
×Draw27%
Sporting CP B33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oliveira Hospital
1.32
Sporting CP B
1.19

Oliveira Hospital creates 11% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 58 away

creates per match

Oliveira Hospital
1.38
Sporting CP B
1.14

allows per match

Oliveira Hospital
1.23
Sporting CP B
1.26

finishing

Oliveira Hospital+0.00on par
Sporting CP B+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oliveira Hospital ↓

Sporting CP B →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Oliveira Hospital or draw
67%
Oliveira Hospital or Sporting CP B
73%
Draw or Sporting CP B
60%

Winning margin

Oliveira Hospital wins by 2+
18%
Sporting CP B wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Oliveira Hospital 1+ goals
73%
Oliveira Hospital 2+ goals
38%
Oliveira Hospital 3+ goals
15%
Sporting CP B 1+ goals
70%
Sporting CP B 2+ goals
33%
Sporting CP B 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Oliveira Hospital (draw refunded)
54%
Sporting CP B (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oliveira Hospital at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.23 · 56 matches

Sporting CP B away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.26 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oliveira Hospital attack 1.38 + Sporting CP B defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.32

Sporting CP B attack 1.14 + Oliveira Hospital defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Oliveira Hospital scores more
40%
level
27%
Sporting CP B scores more
33%

Oliveira Hospital at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Oliveira Hospital will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oliveira Hospital vs Sporting CP B

Oliveira Hospital beat Sporting CP B 2-1 in Liga 3 on November 10, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Tábua in Tábua.