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Oliveira Hospital vs Machico — Taça de Portugal 2018

Oliveira Hospital
Oliveira Hospital
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Machico
Machico
9/22/2024Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 2nd RoundEstádio Municipal de Tábua

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Oliveira Hospital75%
×Draw15%
Machico10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oliveira Hospital
2.71
Machico
0.88

Oliveira Hospital creates 208% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Oliveira Hospital
2.17
Machico
0.75

allows per match

Oliveira Hospital
1.00
Machico
3.25

finishing

Oliveira Hospital+0.00on par
Machico+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oliveira Hospital ↓

Machico →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Oliveira Hospital or draw
90%
Oliveira Hospital or Machico
85%
Draw or Machico
25%

Winning margin

Oliveira Hospital wins by 2+
54%
Machico wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Oliveira Hospital 1+ goals
93%
Oliveira Hospital 2+ goals
75%
Oliveira Hospital 3+ goals
50%
Machico 1+ goals
59%
Machico 2+ goals
22%
Machico 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Oliveira Hospital (draw refunded)
88%
Machico (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oliveira Hospital at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Machico away — creates 0.75, concedes 3.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oliveira Hospital attack 2.17 + Machico defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.71

Machico attack 0.75 + Oliveira Hospital defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Oliveira Hospital scores more
75%
level
15%
Machico scores more
10%

Oliveira Hospital at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Oliveira Hospital will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oliveira Hospital 2 – 0 Machico

Oliveira Hospital beat Machico 2-0 in Taça de Portugal on September 22, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Tábua in Tábua.