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Oliveira Hospital vs Lusitânia Lourosa — Taça de Portugal 2018

Oliveira Hospital
Oliveira Hospital
AET
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lusitânia Lourosa
Lusitânia Lourosa
9/11/2022Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 1st RoundEstádio Municipal de Tábua

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Oliveira Hospital48%
×Draw26%
Lusitânia Lourosa26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oliveira Hospital
1.48
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.00

Oliveira Hospital creates 48% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Oliveira Hospital
2.17
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.00

allows per match

Oliveira Hospital
1.00
Lusitânia Lourosa
0.80

finishing

Oliveira Hospital+0.00on par
Lusitânia Lourosa+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oliveira Hospital ↓

Lusitânia Lourosa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Oliveira Hospital or draw
74%
Oliveira Hospital or Lusitânia Lourosa
74%
Draw or Lusitânia Lourosa
52%

Winning margin

Oliveira Hospital wins by 2+
24%
Lusitânia Lourosa wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Oliveira Hospital 1+ goals
77%
Oliveira Hospital 2+ goals
43%
Oliveira Hospital 3+ goals
19%
Lusitânia Lourosa 1+ goals
63%
Lusitânia Lourosa 2+ goals
26%
Lusitânia Lourosa 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Oliveira Hospital (draw refunded)
65%
Lusitânia Lourosa (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oliveira Hospital at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Lusitânia Lourosa away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oliveira Hospital attack 2.17 + Lusitânia Lourosa defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.48

Lusitânia Lourosa attack 1.00 + Oliveira Hospital defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Oliveira Hospital scores more
48%
level
26%
Lusitânia Lourosa scores more
26%

Oliveira Hospital at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Oliveira Hospital will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Oliveira Hospital 1–0 Lusitânia Lourosa

Oliveira Hospital beat Lusitânia Lourosa 1-0 in Taça de Portugal on September 11, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Tábua in Tábua.